# Stage 4: assess

Part of the [shape exploration](README.md). The user's brief for this stage: per shape or idea, its motivation mix; how
well the mix synergises on Quantic Foundry's map; how competitive that market is; the success rate there; whether
indies with narrowly scoped games exist there.

| Part | State |
|---|---|
| 4a. Motivation mix and synergy | done 2026-10-02 (Claude's inference, not yet confirmed by the user) |
| 4b. Market: competition, success rate, narrowly scoped indies | not started |

## 4a. Motivation mix and synergy

Reference: [motivation-map.md](motivation-map.md) (the 12 motivations, the distances, the games behind each).

**As a picture:** [map.html](map.html) places every shape and variant on the map's two axes, each with a position on
World ↔ Player and on Cerebral ↔ Kinetic and the reason for it. It is a second, direct reading (one judgement per
axis), not a plot of the widths below.

### How to read the table

- **The motivation list per shape is Claude's inference** from the chart's keywords and the game lists. Quantic
  Foundry publishes no profile per mechanic. A different attribution changes the numbers.
- **The toy is Discovery** and is in every mix.
- **Width** = the widest pair inside the mix, in grid squares of the map. A number in brackets is the width if the
  bracketed motivation is counted too.
- **Bands** (Claude's own cut, not the source's): compact up to 1.5, stretched up to 2.2, wide above.
- **Wide is not a conflict.** The source: far-apart motivations "are independent of each other; they don't suppress
  each other".

### Every shape and variant

Shape numbers refer to [01-broaden.md](01-broaden.md), variant letters to [02-deepen.md](02-deepen.md).

| # | Shape / variant | Motivations added to Discovery | Width | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5a | Character: cursor | none | 0 | compact |
| 26 | Knowledge loop | none (Challenge if made hard) | 0 (2.10) | compact |
| 27 | Other players: same start | none (weakly Competition; Challenge if made hard) | 0 (2.72) | compact |
| 15, 5 | Caretaker; base | Design | 0.92 | compact |
| 19 | Other players: visit | Design | 0.92 | compact |
| 24 | One trigger | Design (weakly Destruction) | 0.92 (2.61) | compact |
| 16 | Diagnosis | Strategy | 1.24 | compact |
| 2b | Harvest: steering | Strategy | 1.24 | compact |
| 4b, 6 | Pet: worker | Strategy | 1.24 | compact |
| 4c, 18 | Pet: rule-follower | Strategy | 1.24 | compact |
| 1a, 22 | Cards: hand; deck-building run | Strategy (Challenge if made hard) | 1.24 (2.10) | compact |
| 23 | Pressure: front | Strategy (Challenge if made hard) | 1.24 (2.10) | compact |
| 9 | Other players: async challenge | Strategy (weakly Competition; Challenge if made hard) | 1.24 (2.72) | compact |
| 3 | Alchemy | Completion | 1.44 | compact |
| 11 | Catalogue | Completion | 1.44 | compact |
| 4d, 25 | Pet: lure; naturalist | Completion | 1.44 | compact |
| 8 | Tipping point as a new level | Completion | 1.44 | compact |
| | Other players: traces | Completion | 1.44 | compact |
| 17 | Pressure: deadline | Strategy, Completion | 1.44 | compact |
| 13 | Orders | Completion, Strategy (Challenge if made hard) | 1.44 (2.10) | compact |
| 14 | Expedition | Strategy, Completion (weakly Fantasy) | 1.44 (3.11) | compact |
| 29a | Creature requests: side wishes | Completion (Design if the creatures are yours) | 1.44 (2.36) | compact |
| 1b | Cards: loadout | Strategy, Power | 1.48 | compact |
| 1c | Cards: collection | Completion, Strategy, Power | 1.63 | stretched |
| 2a | Harvest: yield | Completion, Power | 1.63 | stretched |
| 10b | Run: something kept | Power, Completion | 1.63 | stretched |
| 29b | Creature requests: the random ladder | Completion, Strategy, Power | 1.63 | stretched |
| 7 | Idle factory | Completion, Power, Strategy (Design for "beautiful") | 1.63 (2.36) | stretched |
| 10c, 20 | Prep cycle and run cycle | Strategy, Design, Power (Challenge if made hard) | 2.08 (2.76) | stretched |
| 10a | Run: nothing kept | Strategy, Challenge | 2.10 | stretched |
| 12, 21 | Breeding; seed crafting | Design, Strategy, Completion | 2.36 | wide |
| 28 | Exhibit | Design, Completion, Strategy | 2.36 | wide |
| 4a | Pet: companion | Completion, Design | 2.36 | wide |
| 5b | Character as centre | Power, Fantasy, Design | 2.70 | wide |

### Findings

1. **The toy has two near neighbourhoods, and they are far from each other.** Design is the nearest motivation to
   Discovery (0.92); Strategy (1.24) and Completion (1.44) follow on the other side. Design to Strategy is 2.08 and
   Design to Completion 2.36.
2. **Most of the pool is compact.** 23 of the 34 rows stay within 1.5 squares of the toy. Almost everything that looked
   far in the first reading was far because of Challenge, Excitement, Community or Story, which the game lists show
   the pool does not really feed.
3. **Power, the home of "absurdly powerful", is the best-connected motivation on the map.** It is as near the toy as
   Completion, and one square from Strategy.
4. **Difficulty is a dial, not a shape.** Runs, the card hand, orders and the front reach Challenge only if the game
   is made hard, which the audience decides.
5. **The four wide rows all put the "make it mine" side next to Completion or Power:** breeding and seed crafting,
   exhibit and companion pets (Design with Completion), and character as centre (Fantasy with Power). Design with
   Completion is the mix of Animal Crossing and Pokémon.
6. **A wide mix can widen the audience or narrow it** (Claude's inference from how the game lists were built, not a
   statement in the source):
   - It **widens** when each part can be enjoyed without the other (decorate without finishing the museum; collect
     without decorating). The game then draws both groups.
   - It **narrows** when progress forces both parts on the player. Then only players who have both motivations stay.
   - Most games that span several lists are very large. Whether a narrowly scoped game can serve two groups with
     separate parts is a question for 4b.
7. **The user's fantasy sentence joins the two neighbourhoods.** "A massive, diverse, fricking beautiful ecosystem" is
   Design; "that also functions as an idle factory" is Completion, Power and Strategy. Which case of finding 6 it falls
   under depends on whether each half stands alone.
8. **Prep-and-run is the narrowing case.** It stays at 2.08 even when casual, and its halves are mandatory to each
   other. This matches the user's "this might be TWO games".
9. **Peaceful costs little.** The only motivation the user's limit rules out is Destruction, and only one trigger
   touches it, weakly (chain-reaction chaos, which is not violence).
10. **No async shape feeds Community,** which means live team play and chat. The other-player shapes read as Design
    (showing and visiting) and Completion (a rare visitor); the async contests feed Competition only weakly.
11. **Strategy is the motivation Quantic Foundry measured in decline**
    ([strategy/09](../../guides/strategy/09-audience-and-game-shape.md): down to the 33rd percentile of the 2015 scale
    by 2024). Anchor 1 of [03-consolidate.md](03-consolidate.md) leans on it; anchor 2 does not.
12. **The map can't judge caretaker and companion pets.** The model has no motivation for nurturing, cuteness or
    relaxing, and its sample under-represents those players. Only market data can judge these two.

### Corrections made on the way

- **Farming against deck building.** Before the exercise Claude said the two sit at "opposite ends" of the map, so a
  hybrid gets only the overlap of two audiences. The map says far apart is independent, not opposed. The separate
  segment data (the Gardener segment at the 10th percentile on Strategy, in strategy/09) still stands.
- **First reading by cluster names.** It called Power "one step" away, treated the left and top sides as jointly near,
  and missed that Challenge is as far from the toy as Community. Measuring the illustration fixed these.
- **Over-attributed motivations.** The keyword reading gave Story to creature requests, Community to visiting and
  traces, Excitement to the front and one trigger, and Challenge to every run. The game lists showed these don't
  apply; the rows moved from wide or stretched to compact. Largest changes: traces 2.82 → 1.44, expedition 3.11 →
  1.44, creature requests 2.60 → 1.44 and 1.63, the front 2.60 → 1.24, visit 2.01 → 0.92.

## 4b. Market

Not started. To cover, per anchor of [03-consolidate.md](03-consolidate.md) and for the join of the two:

- how competitive the market is
- the success rate there
- whether indies with narrowly scoped games exist there

Open questions carried in from 4a:

- Can a narrowly scoped game serve two motivation groups with separate, optional parts (finding 6)?
- How do caretaker and companion-pet games do, since the map can't judge them (finding 12)?
- The floor: how many games per shape land in the 200 to 300 review tier (the gap noted in strategy/09 section 5).